B-1/B-2 (Tourist & Business) Visa Refusal Rates
Global Average Refusal Rate: ~27.8%
| Nationality / Region | Adjusted Refusal Rate (FY 2025/26) |
| United Arab Emirates | 2.17% |
| Argentina | 7.47% |
| Malaysia | 7.92% |
| South Africa | 11.66% |
| Mexico | 21.36% |
| China | 20.21% |
| India | 24.0% – 28.0% (Varies by Consulate) |
| Colombia | 32.84% |
| Philippines | 25.0% – 30.0% (Estimated) |
| Nigeria | 57.00% |
| Pakistan | 55.0% – 62.0% |
| Haiti / Somalia | 80.0% + |
F-1/F-2 (Student) Visa Refusal Rates
Global Average Refusal Rate: ~41% (A 10-year high)
| Nationality / Region | Estimated Refusal Rate (Latest Data) |
| European Union (Avg) | 5% – 12% |
| China | 24.0% |
| Vietnam | 28.0% |
| Global Average | 41.0% |
| India | 41.0% |
| African Continent (Avg) | 52.0% |
| Canada (International Students) | 52.0% |
| Pakistan | 58.0% |
Important Notes:
- The “214(b)” Trap: Over 90% of these refusals fall under Section 214(b)—the “failure to prove strong ties” to their home country.
- The Nationality Penalty: As you can see, a student from the UAE has a nearly 98% chance of approval, while a student from Nigeria or Pakistan faces a literal coin flip.
- The 2026 Shift: Consular officers have moved toward an “interview-driven” model. Documents matter less than the applicant’s ability to explain their pattern of intent in under two minutes
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